BofA cuts Mexico 2022 GDP outlook to 1.5%

FILE PHOTO: Workers are seen in a building undergoing construction at Mexico City, Mexico January 30, 2020. REUTERS/Andres Martinez Casares

January 11, 2022

(Reuters) -BofA Securities on Tuesday slashed its 2022 forecast for Mexican gross domestic product growth to 1.5% from 2.5% previously, citing weaker-than-expected domestic economic activity, underlining concerns about the recovery in Mexico.

BofA said it had set its Mexico growth forecast well below the 2.8% consensus due to a “conservative policy mix, high uncertainty and low growth expectations”, highlighting the COVID-19 situation in the country as well.

“Low growth is taking place despite strong US growth, which is helping the Mexican economy through trade and remittances,” said Carlos Capistran, Canada and Mexico Economist at BofA Securities.

The forecast compares with the 2.77% growth predicted by the Mexican central bank’s latest monthly poll of analysts.

Battered by the coronavirus pandemic, Mexico’s economy shrank by some 8.5% in 2020, and the latest estimates suggest it fell well short of recovering all the lost ground last year.

Separately, Mexico’s national statistics agency said Mexican industrial output fell 0.1% in November compared to the previous month and grew 1.6% in comparison with November 2020.

(Reporting by Carolina Pulice; Editing by David Gregorio and Lisa Shumaker)

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